Speaking to these projections during his daily address on Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said keeping the number of deaths as low as possible depends on what each person does now, but it will “take months of continued, determined effort.”
Federal projections released by Health Canada detailed the overall best- and worst-case scenarios for the pandemic’s spread and impact in Canada, varying on the degree of actions taken by governments and Canadians.
Referencing the data, Trudeau said the peak of cases in Canada may come in late spring, with the end of the first wave in the summer.
“We have the chance to determine what our country looks like in the weeks and months to come. Our healthcare systems across the country are coping for the time being, but we’re at a fork in the road, between the best and the worst possible outcomes,” Trudeau said. “The best possible outcome is no easy path for any of us.”
“There will likely be smaller outbreaks for a number of months after that. This will be the new normal, until a vaccine is developed,” Trudeau said.
Evoking war-time language, and noting that Thursday marks the anniversary of the start of the First World War battle of Vimy Ridge, Trudeau said things will get better, but first Canadians will have to sacrifice.
WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS
The scenarios indicate that, depending on the containment efforts, between 4,000 and 300,000 people in Canada could die from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic. Though, the current reality of the virus has Canada closer to the lower end of that spectrum and the two more developed scenarios from Health Canada show that the range is likely somewhere between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadian deaths.
The short-term federal projection on the spread of COVID-19 shows that between 500 and 700 Canadians could die from COVID-19 in the next week, with the number of cases rising to between 22,580 and 31,850 cases.
If 2.5 per cent of the population contracts the virus, that would mean:
934,000 Canadians get sick;
73,000 could be hospitalized;
23,000 people could end up in the intensive care unit; and
11,000 people could die.
If the percentage of the population that gets sick hits 5 per cent, that would mean:
1,879,000 contract COVID-19;
146,000 could be hospitalized;
46,000 people could end up in the ICU; and
22,000 people could die.
If that grows further to 10 per cent of the population, approximately 44,000 people in Canada could die.
With no control efforts in place, up to 80 per cent of Canadians could contract the virus. That scenario could result in a summertime peak and more than 300,000 deaths, which is approximately equivalent to the total number of deaths from all causes in Canada each year.
Health Canada says the current pandemic parameters Canadians are living under are considered strong controls, such as physical distancing, and quarantining travellers, whereas if fewer people stay home or do not act like they could be carrying the virus there will be a weaker hold on the disease.
The data and modelling released Thursday is informing the current national public health measures in place to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus.
--with files from CTV News--