Today, the Government of Canada released national-level modelling on the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. The modelling attempts to show how the epidemic might unfold over the coming months based on knowledge of how the virus behaves and the potential impact of public health measures.
It is important to be aware of the limitations and benefits of modelling. Models are not crystal balls and cannot predict the future. However, they do help in planning and show how collective actions can have a direct and significant impact on the epidemic trajectory.
While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada's modelling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and to save lives. Every death cannot be prevented, but as many as possible must be prevented.
Every Canadian has a role in what the future will hold for the country's COVID-19 trajectory. True public health measures, including staying home when possible, maintaining physical distancing, meticulous handwashing, and covering coughs must be continued. What Canadians do together now to stop the spread of COVID-19 will reduce the impact of the pandemic and determine how soon the government can readjust public health measures.
COVID-19 in Canada: Using data and modelling to inform public health action